Study · Oct 1, 2026

Can Telegram signals pass a prop firm challenge? We simulated 1,220 attempts

We copied the real signals of 18 channels into a typical prop firm challenge, starting it on every day of their history. How many pass, why they fail, and what to check before you use a channel for your challenge.

By , founder of Verpips · Reviewed Oct 1, 2026 · How we measure

The short answer

Rarely. We simulated 1,220 prop firm challenges by copying the real signals of 18 Telegram channels, risking 1% per trade. Of the ones that finished, only 31% passed phase 1. And what blows the account is almost never one bad day: it’s the overall drawdown, which went past −10% in 514 of the 579 failed challenges.

How we ran the simulation

We took the 18 channels we’ve measured in depth (at least 20 trades each, against real prices, tick by tick and including the spread) and applied the most common phase 1 rules of a prop firm challenge:

  • Profit target: 8% of the account.
  • Max daily loss: 5%. Lose more than that in a day and the challenge is failed.
  • Max overall loss: 10% from the starting balance.
  • Risk: 1% per trade, copying every signal the channel posts, with no time limit.

So the outcome wouldn’t hinge on the luck of starting on a good day, we started the challenge on every day with signals in each channel’s history: 1,220 starts in total. A challenge that reaches the end of the data without passing or failing counts as “unresolved.” What a funded account is.

Finding 1

Only 31% of the challenges that finish get passed

The challenges, risking 1% per trade

  • 255 pass (21%)
  • 579 fail (47%)
  • 386 unresolved (32%)

Out of 1,220 challenges, 255 hit +8%, 579 failed and 386 couldn’t be resolved with the data available. Counting only the ones that finished, there were more than two failures for every pass.

Finding 2

What fails you isn’t the bad day, it’s the overall drawdown

Why challenges fail

  • 514 lost more than 10% overall (89%)
  • 65 lost more than 5% in one day (11%)

Almost everyone worries about the daily loss limit, but in the simulation it accounts for only 65 of the 579 failures. The rest come from the max overall loss: a long streak of small losses. That matches what we measured in the channels: a typical channel’s max drawdown is 17.7 R, and at 1% per trade that’s already more than the 10% the challenge allows. What drawdown is.

Finding 3

Only 4 of 18 channels pass more often than they fail

All 18 channels, copied at 1% risk

  • 4 pass more often than they fail
  • 7 pass sometimes, but fail more often
  • 7 never pass

Some channels, copied at 1% risk, pass almost every time, and others never do: 7 of the 18 didn’t pass the challenge from a single start date. That’s why the useful question isn’t “can signals pass a prop firm challenge?” but “can this channel?”

Finding 4

Risking half barely fails, but almost never gets there

The same challenges, risking 0.5% per trade

  • 97 pass (8%)
  • 114 fail (9%)
  • 1,009 unresolved (83%)

At 0.5% per trade, failures drop from 579 to 114, but you need twice as many R to reach +8%, and 1,009 challenges neither pass nor fail within the period we’ve measured. Lowering your risk doesn’t turn a losing channel into a winning one. It just makes the losses come slower. What risk management is.

Finding 5

When a challenge passes, it takes about 14 days of signals

The median passed challenge took 14 days with signals to reach +8%. Many prop firms charge a fee per attempt or set a time limit: a channel that passes slowly can cost you several attempts, even if it gets there in the end.

What about the channel you want to use?

Pick an audited channel and your challenge rules: we simulate it with its real trades and show you how often it passes and why it fails.

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Before you use a channel for your challenge

  1. Check its max drawdown in R: if, at your risk per trade, it’s bigger than the challenge’s max overall loss, you won’t pass with it.
  2. Check its worst day: at 1% per trade, a −5 R day is already a fail.
  3. Look at its R per trade, not its win rate: without positive expectancy, low risk only delays the fail.
  4. Make sure you can copy it in time: for most channels a few minutes change nothing, but for 4 of 50, 30 seconds is enough to lose (see the study).

Limitations

  • Phase 1 only. Most challenges have a second phase (+5%) with the same limits, so the real share of traders who get to a funded account is lower.
  • Rules vary from firm to firm: 8% or 10% profit targets, a static or trailing max drawdown, a daily limit based on balance or on equity. We used the most common ones.
  • Each day is counted by the date each signal was posted, using its final result, not floating equity at every moment: in real life, the daily limit gets hit sooner.
  • These are the 18 channels we’ve measured in depth, not a random sample of Telegram, and past results that don’t predict future results and aren’t a recommendation.

Simulation run on Oct 1, 2026; the supporting numbers update automatically, and this version is from Oct 6, 2026.

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

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