Study · Oct 1, 2026
We tested thousands of Telegram gold signals against real prices. Here’s what we found
Channels post “TP hit” far more often than “SL hit,” yet only a minority make money once every signal is measured. Six findings, with our method and its limitations.
By Julián Cardona, founder of Verpips · Reviewed Oct 1, 2026 · How we measure
The short version
- 📢 Channels announce 55.8 times more targets hit than stops, but measured against real prices only 44% of their signals actually reach a target (median).
- 📉 Of the 18 channels we measured in depth, 6 end up in the green. The median result per trade is −0.04 R.
- ⏱️ Copying late rarely changes the outcome, but for a handful of channels 30 seconds changes everything. And trades that last under 30 minutes lose money on average.
How we measured it
We took 3,866 signals posted by 18 Telegram channels, the vast majority of them gold (XAUUSD), between Jul 14, 2023 and Oct 6, 2026. Every signal was replayed against real prices, tick by tick and including the spread, from the second it was posted, using the entry, stop loss and targets exactly as the channel wrote them. If the stop got hit before the target, it counts as a loss, no matter what the channel says afterward.
We also read 19,674 signal-style messages and 24,953 result announcements across 269 public channels. Results are expressed in R: how many times the risk of each trade you made or lost. What R means.
Finding 1
They announce 55.8 times more targets than stops
What they announce
What we measure
of trades end at the stop
In the channels’ own messages, “TP hit” shows up 24,514 times; “SL hit,” 439. Reading the channel, it looks like almost everything wins. Measured against real prices, 41% of trades ended at the stop. The gap isn’t in the market. It’s in what gets announced and what doesn’t.
More in the glossary: What is a stop loss?
Finding 2
Only 6 of 18 channels make money
One dot per channel measured
6 in profit · 12 in the red
A typical trade
To break even with those numbers you need to be right more than 57% of the time.
The median channel we measured loses 0.05 R per trade. It’s not a disaster on every signal. It’s a small, steady loss that adds up once you repeat it hundreds of times. When they win, they win +0.76 R on average; when they lose, −0.99 R. They make less than they risk, and they’re right less than half the time.
More in the glossary: What is expectancy?
Finding 3
TP3 almost never gets hit: only 8% of the time
How many trades reach each target
Signals with three targets sell you on the third, the farthest one. In practice, 38% reach the first target, 20% the second and 8% the third. A “TP1 hit” message doesn’t tell you how the signal ended: the rest of the position can still get stopped out.
More in the glossary: What is a take profit?
Finding 4
The shortest trades are the ones that lose
of trades close in under 30 minutes
Average result per trade
54% of trades close in under half an hour, and those average −0.23 R. Trades that last more than four hours average +0.36 R. On trades that short, the spread and price noise weigh more than the idea behind the signal.
More in the glossary: What is scalping?
Finding 5
Copying late: it rarely matters, and sometimes it’s everything
What the typical winning channel keeps when copied late
Median of 27 channels. In 4 channels, though, 30 seconds already costs a measurable amount.
Nobody copies a signal the exact second it’s posted. We replayed the signals with a delay: 41 of 50 channels can take a 5-minute delay without a provable loss, but for 4, 30 seconds is enough to sink the result. If you follow a channel that enters at market with tight stops while you’re at work, or your notifications arrive late, your results won’t match the channel’s. Read the full study.
More in the glossary: What is copy trading?
Finding 6
3 of 18 channels would have blown a funded account
3 of 18 channels with at least one day of −5 R or worse (a broken daily loss limit at 1% risk per trade)
Risking 1% per trade, 3 channels had at least one day with losses of 5 R or more: the daily loss limit at almost every prop firm. A typical channel’s worst day was −3.8 R. Whether a channel works for a funded account comes down to its worst day, not its best month.
More in the glossary: What is a funded account?
What this means for you: five questions before you follow a channel
- Does it post the full signal, with entry, stop loss and targets, or just results?
- Does it announce its stops too, or only the targets it hits?
- Are its results measured against real prices, including every signal?
- What were its worst losing streak and its worst day?
- Can you copy its signals in time, at the hours it posts?
Limitations
- These are 18 channels, not every channel out there: the ones we’ve measured in depth, mostly gold. It’s not a random sample of Telegram.
- Some are measured from their public web preview, which doesn’t show what the channel already deleted. If a channel deletes its losers, it looks better than it is.
- Medians summarize; every channel is different. That’s why we measure and publish channel by channel.
- These are past results. They don’t predict future results and they aren’t a recommendation.
The numbers in this study update automatically with our measurements; this version is from Oct 7, 2026.
Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Channel by channel
These are medians. What about the channel you follow?
Paste its link or find it in the directory: we measure every signal against the real price, with its stops, its worst day and what you lose by copying late.