Trading & signals glossary
What is win rate in trading?
Win rate is the share of trades that end in profit: 60 winners out of 100 is a 60% win rate. On its own it doesn’t tell you whether a system makes money, because it ignores how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
How it works
Count the winning trades and divide by the closed trades. Trades closed at entry (breakeven) are sometimes counted separately.
A high win rate is easy to get: just put targets very close and stops very far. That’s why you have to read it next to the average win and the average loss.
The minimum win rate to break even depends on that ratio: if you make what you risk, anything over 50% works; if you make half of it, you need over 67%.
70% win rate
7 winning trades out of 10
× average win
+0.3 R each = +2.1 R
− losses
3 × −1 R = −3 R
Result
−0.9 R: a loser at a 70% win rate
How to calculate it
win rate = winning trades ÷ closed trades
breakeven win rate = average loss ÷ (average win + average loss)
Example: two channels with the same win rate
- Channel A: 7 of 10 win at +0.5 R and 3 lose at −1 R → 3.5 − 3 = +0.5 R.
- Channel B: 7 of 10 win at +0.3 R and 3 lose at −1 R → 2.1 − 3 = −0.9 R.
- Both have a 70% win rate; one makes money and the other loses it.
Our data · Verpips
What’s posted vs. what’s measured
- 44%
- median win rate, measured
- 57%
- win rate needed to break even
- 55.8×
- more “target hit” posts than “stop hit”
median win rate, measured against the real price
win rate needed to break even with their typical win and loss
The channels we read post 55.8 times more targets hit than stops hit. Measured against real prices, the median win rate across the 18 channels is 44%. With their typical win (+0.76 R) and typical loss (−0.99 R), they’d need a 57% win rate just to break even.
Verpips data as of Oct 7, 2026, measured against the real price. See how we measure and the channel directory.
Types and variations
- Win rate per trade
- Winners over closed trades. The most common.
- Win rate per target
- “Hit TP1” counts as a win even if the rest gets stopped out: it inflates the number.
- With or without breakeven
- Counting trades closed flat as wins pushes the win rate up without making a dime.
Why it matters when choosing a signal channel
It’s the number channels use most to sell (“90% win rate”) and the one that tells you the least. To know whether a channel makes money, look at R per trade: win rate combined with how much is won and lost.
Common traps
- Counting every target hit as a win, instead of every complete signal.
- Counting trades closed at entry as wins.
- Calculating the win rate only from the signals they chose to post, leaving out the deleted ones.
- Close targets and wide stops so the percentage looks good.
Key takeaways
- ✓Win rate = winners ÷ closed trades.
- ✓A high win rate can lose money; a low one can make money.
- ✓The win rate you need depends on how much you make vs. how much you lose.
- ✓Always ask how a channel counts a “win.”
FAQ: win rate
What’s a good win rate?
No number is good on its own: it depends on the ratio between your average win and average loss. With targets twice as far as the stop, 40% already makes money.
How can a channel with a 90% win rate lose money?
Because its few losses can be much bigger than its many wins, or because it counts things as wins that aren’t.
Is win rate the same as hit rate?
Yes: win rate, hit rate and strike rate all mean the share of trades that close in profit. What changes from one channel to the next is what they count as a win.
Channel by channel
See these numbers for each channel, not as an average.
With a free account you see each channel’s result in R, its drawdown, and what it announced versus what actually happened.