Study · Oct 7, 2026
How many trading signals hit TP2 and TP3? We tested 2,713 gold signals
We tested 2,713 gold signals with three targets against real prices: only 26% hit TP3 before the stop. Plus which way of closing the trade pays best.
By Julián Cardona, founder of Verpips · Reviewed Oct 7, 2026 · How we measure
The short answer
Only 1 in 4 gold signals with three targets hits TP3 before the stop: 26%. That’s the average of two very different pictures: 18% in the private groups we measure with their full history, and 43% in the public channels we measure from their web page, which probably look better than they are. And if you move your stop to entry once TP1 is hit (the channel itself calls for it on 1 in 4 of the signals that get there), only 1 in 8 makes it: 13%. We measured 2,713 signals from 27 Telegram channels against real prices, including the spread.
TP1 usually does get hit (61%), but fewer than half of the signals that reach it go on to TP3. And when we tested four ways of closing out the same signals, none clearly beat the others: which channel you follow matters far more than how you split your exits.
How we measured it
We took every channel we’ve measured with at least 20 trades and kept its signals with exactly three targets that actually got filled. Orders that never filled and signals we couldn’t measure are left out. A channel only counts if it has at least 20 of these signals. That leaves 2,713 signals from 27 channels, posted between Sep 12, 2025 and Oct 6, 2026.
We replay each signal tick by tick from the second it was posted, with the channel’s entry, stop and targets, and with its trade-management messages: if it announces a close or moves the stop to a price, the simulation does too. A signal with a second entry is measured as a single position, the first one, so every strategy risks the same amount: 1 R per signal.
“Hitting TP n” means price touches that target before the original stop, within the trade’s time window. We count it two ways: on price alone, with the stop left where the channel posted it, and with breakeven, moving the stop to entry once TP1 is hit; then TP2 and TP3 only count if they come before price returns to entry.
We wrote the method down before looking at any results. Intervals are 95% and come from resampling channels, not signals, because signals from the same channel aren’t independent. How we measure every channel.
Finding 1
TP3 gets hit on 1 in 4 signals; with breakeven, 1 in 8
All 2,713 signals: how many reach each target
- TP161%61%
- TP242%27%
- TP326%13%
- On price (stop left in place)
- With breakeven after TP1
| Target | On price | With breakeven | Median channel | Range across channels |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TP1 | 61% (57–67%) | 61% | 68% | 23–92% |
| TP2 | 42% (36–49%) | 27% (23–31%) | 50% | 18–89% |
| TP3 | 26% (21–34%) | 13% (10–17%) | 37% | 9–81% |
95% interval in parentheses. Median and range are on price alone.
Hitting TP1 doesn’t guarantee what comes next:
| Once a signal has hit… | …it goes on to the next target |
|---|---|
| TP1 → TP2 | 69% (63–75%) |
| TP1 → TP3 | 43% (35–53%) |
| TP2 → TP3 | 62% (51–73%) |
The median TP1 on these signals sits at 0.51 R: it pays half of what you risk. TP3, when it gets hit, pays a median of 1.9 R. That’s why the last target carries so much weight even though it rarely arrives.
Channels differ enormously: in one, 9% of signals reach TP3; in another, 81%. The middle half of channels falls between 18% and 50%. An average says little about the channel you follow.
More in the glossary: What is a take profit? · What is R?
Finding 2
Breakeven cuts the signals that reach TP3 in half
With the stop left in place, 26% of signals reach TP3; with the stop moved to entry after TP1, 13%. Of the 1,655 signals that hit TP1, 859 (52%) come back to entry before reaching TP2. All told, about 360 signals that reach TP3 with the stop left alone get stopped out along the way with breakeven.
But leaving the stop alone has a cost: of those same 1,655 signals, 754 (46%) end up hitting the full original stop. Breakeven doesn’t give you targets for free: it swaps a full loss for a scratch, and in return it cuts short many trades that would have gone further.
And few channels actually call for it: of the signals that hit TP1, the channel posts that it’s moving the stop to entry on 26%, and most channels never post it at all. Which effect wins can’t be reasoned out; it has to be measured, and that’s the next finding.
More in the glossary: What is breakeven? · What is a stop loss?
Finding 3
Four ways to close, almost the same result
We replayed all 2,713 signals with four exit strategies. Same signals, same ticks, the same 1 R of risk per signal:
| Strategy | R per signal | Vs. “one third at each TP” | Winners | Channels in profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Close everything at TP1 | −0.013 R (−0.060 to +0.045) | −0.021 R (−0.042 to −0.001) | 60% | 13 of 27 |
| B · Hold everything for TP3, stop left in place | +0.065 R (−0.004 to +0.147) | +0.057 R (−0.007 to +0.136) | 32% | 15 of 27 |
| C · One third at each TP, stop to breakeven after TP1 | +0.008 R (−0.030 to +0.059) | — | 60% | 13 of 27 |
| D · Half at TP1, stop to breakeven, the other half to TP3 | +0.009 R (−0.027 to +0.056) | 0.000 R (−0.010 to +0.010) | 60% | 14 of 27 |
Average across the 2,713 signals, with its 95% interval. Before commissions.
- No strategy makes money in a provable way. All four return between −0.01 R and +0.07 R per signal, and every interval touches or crosses zero.
- Closing everything at TP1 does slightly worse than splitting into thirds: 0.02 R per signal, with the interval just below zero. It wins on the same trades (60%), but collects less on each one.
- Holding everything for TP3 has the highest average, but it can’t be told apart from chance. 70% of its edge comes from a single channel; without it, the edge drops to +0.02 R per signal. It wins provably in only 2 of the 27 channels, and it wins one trade in three.
- Half at TP1 and half to TP3 does the same as thirds.
We also split each channel’s history into two halves, and the picture doesn’t hold: in the first half, “hold for TP3” provably beats thirds and “close at TP1” doesn’t lose; in the second half, it’s exactly the reverse. An edge that flips sides from one stretch of months to the next isn’t a rule.
Look at the “Winners” column: the strategy that wins most often isn’t the one that makes the most, and the one that wins least has the highest average. A win rate doesn’t tell you how much a channel makes.
More in the glossary: What is win rate? · What is expectancy?
Finding 4
How a channel is measured changes the number a lot
| Channels | Signals | TP1 | TP2 | TP3 | TP3 with breakeven | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private groups, full history | 8 | 1,817 | 56% | 35% | 18% | 9% |
| Public channels, from their web page | 19 | 896 | 71% | 56% | 43% | 22% |
A channel’s public page doesn’t show what the channel has already deleted, and in those measurements a trade gets up to two days to play out, versus the end of the day in the private groups. Both push the number up. That’s why the headline 26% is an average of 18% and 43%.
In our first study of gold signals we give 8% for TP3. That’s the breakeven measure across every signal with a third target in the private groups, and it lines up with the 9% in this table.
What this means for you
- Read “TP1 hit” for what it is. At the median it pays half of what you risk, and fewer than half of the signals that reach it make it to TP3.
- Don’t pick an exit plan by win rate. Closing everything at TP1 wins more often and makes less.
- The split matters less than the channel. On the same signals, the four strategies end up a few hundredths of an R apart. How to tell if a channel is legit.
- Make sure your position can be split. Closing a third at each target takes at least 0.03 lots. Work it out with the lot size calculator.
What we can’t conclude
- That one exit strategy is better than another in general. The differences are hundredths of an R, their intervals cross zero, they lean heavily on one channel, and they flip sign between the two halves of the period.
- Anything about other markets. Outside gold, only 5 valid signals with three targets were left. There’s no way to compare gold with the rest.
- What happens after the window. A TP3 that arrives the next day doesn’t count. If the trade is still open at the end, each measurement applies its own rule: close at market or treat the stop as hit.
- What happens if you ignore the channel. We apply its close messages and stop moves; if you don’t follow them, your numbers will differ. The same goes for copying late: how much you lose copying signals late.
- Costs. We include the spread, but not commissions or swaps, and three partial positions don’t cost the same as one.
- That it applies to any channel. These are 27 channels, almost all gold, not a random sample of Telegram. The intervals treat each channel as independent; streaks and market regimes would make them wider. Past results don’t predict future results and aren’t a recommendation.
Measured on Oct 7, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
- What percentage of trading signals hit TP3?
- Of the 2,713 gold signals with three targets we measured, 26% hit TP3 before the stop with the stop left in place; with the stop moved to entry after TP1, 13%. It varies widely by channel: from 9% to 81%.
- Is it better to close everything at TP1?
- Not in our data. It wins on the same trades as splitting into thirds, but returns a bit less: 0.02 R per signal. Holding everything for TP3 doesn’t provably win either.
- Should you move your stop to breakeven at TP1?
- It cuts the signals that reach TP3 in half, but it keeps almost half of the ones that hit TP1 from ending in a full loss. In money terms, thirds with or without breakeven come out about the same, and the difference can’t be told apart from chance.
- How do I split my position across TP1, TP2 and TP3?
- You need a position you can divide: three equal partials take at least 0.03 lots. Size it for your risk per trade with the lot size calculator and check your broker’s minimum.
This is information, not investment advice. Trading on leverage can lose you more than you deposit: risk disclosure.
Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Channel by channel
These are medians. What about the channel you follow?
Paste its link or find it in the directory: we measure every signal against the real price, with its stops, its worst day and what you lose by copying late.